Published in Blog Posts
31 Dec, 2010 Posted by:

2011 Leap

The beginning of the new year reminded me of all the unfulfilled promises of the future when I was a kid: flying cars, suspended buildings and easy commute in space.

These were of course simple extrapolations of the dominant technologies at the time. No one made the “leap” to the computer technology and how it would change our world. Consequently, many of the current thinkers, trying to avoid the flaws of the past predictions, focus their forecasts on finding the new “leap”, whether this is in bioinformatics or microelectromechanical systems. However, one characteristic of the computer technology that distinguishes it from the older ones is that while transportation and construction technologies leveled off at some point with only incremental advances, the computer technology is moving exponentially as fast as it started. Hence, the new leaps of the past 50 years are still happening within this same technology. Still hard to predict as they are leaps and not extrapolations but nevertheless the same good-old technology of the sixties. Last year, with Facebook, we just witnessed another unpredictable leap. The simple extrapolation of the identity-less people of the Internet was the fake world of SecondLife. However, the leap happened when 500 million users of FaceBook showed that as humans we like to keep our real-world identities, friends and social fabrics. The text-based first-life overcame the graphic-rich second life! And that is why I strongly believe the integration of the real-world locations into this social fabric is the next natural step leading to the next leap. Happy New Year everyone!